From Defeat to Determination: Kamala Harris's Next Chapter
Ivan Ng is a first-year Law student. He is interested in delving into the political systems around the world and comparing their efficiency of governance. (www.linkedin.com/in/ivannghk)
Introduction
“I’ll keep you posted,” she said. “It is not my nature to go quietly into the night.”
Breaking the hardest glass ceilings in US politics 4 years ago, Kamala Harris became the Vice President of the United States, holding the highest-ranking office for women, African Americans, and Asian Americans in the country. Although her performance as Vice President has been a topic of debate, she garnered support from senior Democrats to become the Democratic nominee after Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential election. In her first 24 hours of campaigning, Harris raised an impressive $81 million, injecting unprecedented energy into the Democratic Party and alleviating frustrations from the President’s lackluster campaign. However, her opponent, former President Donald Trump, ultimately gained more traction with the American public.
Though her campaign came to an end, her political ambition remains undeterred. As she signed her name in the desk drawer upon leaving office following the tradition of her predecessors, she reaffirmed her desire to maintain political influence, as expressed in the first line of this article. What might her plans be? Will she run for office again? If so, could it be for senator, governor, or potentially the presidency again?
What Did Previous Unsuccessful Presidential Candidates Do After Their Defeat?
Before we delve into Harris' potential plans, let us look at what unsuccessful recent presidential candidates from both the Democratic and Republican Parties did after their defeat. John McCain (2008) and Romney (2012) ran for the offices of and became Senators in their home states, dedicating their political careers to the interests of their constituents on the national stage. John Kerry (2004) continued his role as a senator (1983-2013) and later took on governmental roles, including the Secretary of State (2013-2017) and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate (2021-2024), staying active in the national political arena and influencing government policies through different channels. While it seems likely that major party candidates continue to be in office in Washington D.C. even after losing the election, there are examples to prove the contrary. Al Gore (2000) retreated from politics and focused on advocating environmentalism, which won him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. Hillary Clinton (2016) expressly declared that she would not seek office again, but would continue to influence this country through various means. Indeed, till now, she published 5 books after her defeat, using her personal perspective to share insights on politics, resilience, and the challenges faced by women in leadership.
Of course, there is one prominent lost candidate that we cannot ignore: Donald Trump, who ran for President again and succeeded.
Senator of California?
Senior administrative officials have confirmed that Kamala Harris moved back to Los Angeles, California, following the conclusion of her vice presidency on January 20, 2025. Speculation is rife about her potential candidacy for office in California. Having previously served as a senator before her vice presidency, some suggest Harris might seek a return to the Senate.
While this idea seems plausible at first glance, it's essential to consider the timing of senatorial races. Senate elections occur every six years, with one-third of the 100 Senate seats (33 or 34) up for election every two years. Since the most recent elections for California's Senate seats were in 2022 and 2024, the next opportunity for Harris to run for the Senate would be in 2028 or 2030. This timeline could leave her with a political vacuum of nearly four years, which could be problematic if she wishes to maintain or amplify her political voice.
Additionally, 2028 is also a presidential election year. If Harris intends to build her political capital for another presidential run (will be discussed below), returning to the Senate may not be her best option. Instead, she might focus on other strategies to remain influential in the political landscape.
What about, the Governor of California?
A more practical position may be the governor of her home state. California holds its gubernatorial elections every four years, with a limit of two terms. As the incumbent governor, Gavin Newsom, began his term in 2018 and was re-elected in 2022, he will not be eligible for re-election in 2026, creating an opportunity for new candidates to emerge.
California has consistently been a "blue state," meaning it has historically supported the Democratic Party over the Republican Party. Given this trend, it is highly likely that the Democratic nominee will win the upcoming gubernatorial election. Numerous California Democrats, such as Toni Atkins and Eleni Kounalakis, have already announced their candidacies. However, Harris's national profile may give her a significant advantage in this race.
Recent actions by Harris seem to support this speculation. She established an LLC called "Pioneer 49," named after her Secret Service code name. According to Politico, the disclosure form described the organization as an "entity to assist the former vice president," potentially laying the groundwork for her next political move. While founding a company or initiative alone may not signal a forthcoming campaign, it does indicate her intent to remain active in politics.
Thus, it is plausible that Harris may seek the governorship in 2026. If elected, her policies will likely face intense scrutiny, particularly in light of her controversial performance as Vice President. To navigate this landscape, she must cultivate support among her fellow Democrats and the broader national audience.
And, Of Course, the President
Throughout US history, it has not been uncommon for candidates to run for the presidency again after losing. According to the Washington Post, more than one-quarter of presidents have lost a presidential election before eventually taking the Oval Office. While some may argue that it is too early for anyone to consider running for President, it's important to note that, unlike the Westminster parliamentary system—where election dates can vary significantly—the US has a federal election system with presidential elections occurring approximately the same date every four years. This consistency allows candidates to consider announcing their candidacy as soon as the previous election concludes. For instance, Donald Trump declared his candidacy for President in July 2022, more than two years before the actual election, demonstrating the proactive approach many candidates take.
After an impressive 106-day campaign, Kamala Harris has positioned herself advantageously against other potential candidates within her party. Polling organizations such as McLaughlin & Associates, Emerson College, Echelon Insights, and Morning Consult have assessed the widespread support for several potential Democratic politicians for the 2028 presidential election. This includes Pete Buttigieg, the Transportation Secretary in the Biden administration; Gavin Newsom, governor of California; Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, etc. Despite her significant loss in seven swing states during the 2024 presidential election, Harris consistently topped these polls even after the defeat, significantly leading other candidates by 30 to 40%.
If Harris wishes to seek office again, the Oval Office may be one of her best options. Some even suggest that she might run for the California gubernatorial office before launching another presidential campaign to bolster her political profile further. However, it's essential to remember that polls do not always reflect reality. The 2016 presidential election is a prominent example, where Hillary Clinton—predicted by most polls to win—ultimately lost by nearly 80 electoral votes. Similarly, the predictions leading up to the recent election underestimated the outcomes, with Trump sweeping all seven swing states and winning by two million popular votes.
Additionally, polls this early may have limitations in accurately predicting what will happen in 2028 as significant uncertainties remain. This was particularly evident in the Democratic primary in 2008, where Hillary Clinton, long expected to be the front-runner, ultimately lost to the then rising political star, Barack Obama. Clinton's unexpected defeat highlighted how rapidly political dynamics can shift, often influenced by voter sentiment, campaign strategies, and emerging issues. Similarly, as we approach the 2028 election, candidates must navigate an evolving landscape that could drastically alter the current trajectory of support.
So, will the polls prove unreliable once again? Will Harris run for President again? And if she does, will she face another loss?
Conclusion
Daniel Lippman, a senior reporter for Politico covering the White House and Washington, tweeted on January 11 that the “Harris Victory Fund… set up with the DNC is still charging monthly recurring donors,” indicating her desire to remain active in the political landscape.
A former Biden advisor once remarked, "People forget that had there been a real primary [in 2024], she never would have been the nominee. Everyone knows that." However, times have changed. With her nomination as the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, Harris is no longer just the California senator who exited her presidential campaign in less than a year in 2019. While her next move remains uncertain, it is clear that she is now a prominent figure within her party who appeals to a national audience. The doors are open for her.
References:
Daniels, E. (2025) Kamala Harris provides a big signal about her next move, Politico. Available at: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/23/kamala-harris-pioneer49-future-00200305 (Accessed: 02 February 2025).
Gómez, F., Cavazos, N. and Mosk, M. (2025) Harris and Emhoff headed back to California after inauguration; source says they’re looking at NYC Apartments, CBS News. Available at: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-doug-emhoff-california-new-york/ (Accessed: 02 February 2025).
Spivak, J. (2025) One-quarter of presidents lost before they won. Mitt Romney won’t be among them., The Washington Post. Available at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/01/22/one-quarter-of-presidents-lost-before-they-won-mitt-romney-wont-be-among-them/ (Accessed: 2025).
Subramanian, C. (2025) Kamala Harris: After her bruising election loss, what next?, BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgq1dwpxvnxo (Accessed: 02 February 2025).
Vanderhoof, E. (2025) How Kamala Harris made history as she left DC, Vanity Fair. Available at: https://www.vanityfair.com/style/story/kamala-harris-all-female-flight-crew (Accessed: 02 February 2025).
