Korea’s Divide: Nobel Prizes and Rubbish Bags
George Tuley is a third-year economics student. His regional focus is on East Asia, particularly the geopolitical dynamics of the Korean Peninsula and the greater China region. (www.linkedin.com/in/george-tuley)
Nobel Prize wins and worrying histories
South Korean author Han Kang’s (한강) recent media silence following her achieving the Nobel Prize in Literature has led many to question this peculiar response. She recounted the bitter conditions surrounding her achievement in her only appearance since the win on the Swedish national television station SVT (Carlén & Lewin, 2024). She explained that she hoped that humankind could learn from the lessons of history and violence, as seen throughout her works.
Born in 1970 in Gwangju (광주), South Korea, Han’s work explores the tragedy and lasting pain that violence can leave on a culture. One of her many celebrated works, Human Acts, explores the events of the 1980 Gwangju pro-democracy student resistance against the martial law rule of Chun Doo-hwan that resulted in a bloody crackdown by the army. This masterpiece has spread awareness of the atrocity and cast a light on the volatile history of South Korea.
Her win has brought further popularity to her books and shone a light on the fragility of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s recent launching of waste balloons across the border has marked another sign against reunification prospects. According to Ng (2024), at least 260 balloons have been dropped prompting warnings to South Korean residents to stay inside and avoid coming into contact with the waste. While it may be a further stunt of propaganda politics, the increasing frequency of these events is concerning. The regime turning from nuclear tests to waste balloons marks a strategy of inconvenience rather than rupturing the geopolitical order. It may not generate as much criticism from the international community but aims to show Seoul that Pyongyang has no intention of finding cooperation.
A change in North Korean tactics
The change in North Korean tactics was also seen in the destruction of the remaining infrastructure across the peninsula. Shin and Yim (2024) reported that the remaining railway bridges have recently been destroyed and fortified by the North Koreans which South Korea argues violates past agreements between the two countries. The direct damage this has done alongside the balloon drops affirms that Pyongyang is ready and committed to deviating from any former hopes of unification or stability on the peninsula.
While this may not seem any different from previous tension on the border, Pyongyang’s tactics are critically different. The nuclear tests like those seen in 2017 aimed to project to the geopolitical powers a nuclear-armed North Korea with some missile tests landing in the seas surrounding Japan (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2024). However, the recent activity has been localised to the border with South Korea means most media coverage is domestic with little international attention. This development towards smaller isolated events may relieve observers but this is the point at which there must be increased focus on the region for developments.
Trump: a return back to tensions?
This situation will become even more fragile with the election of US President-elect Donald Trump on the 5th of November 2024. While his previous term as president saw a dialogue between the USA and North Korea, the geopolitical situation has changed significantly. As seen through its recent actions, the North has signalled its distaste for the US-supported hopes for reunification and a closer relationship. Even though time will only tell for the consequences of a new leader in the White House for the peninsula, many have theorised about potential future escalation.
The first theory reported recently by Kim (2024) and Bennett (2024) points to the potential of further nuclear tests following the US election result. These reports indicate a return to regular nuclear tests seen in the previous Trump administration. If this were the case, it would have the potential for a further rise of tensions wider than the Korean peninsula.
While the previous tests may have been performances of engineering achievements, further tests could prove deadlier. A key danger lies in the wider global response to future tests of nuclear weapons. Previously, this has been limited to international economic sanctions placed on North Korea which have remained in place until present. However, the increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape suggests that harsher direct responses would not be unthinkable. Time can only answer what will happen if or when North Korea decides to conduct further tests.
Despite this, the recent movement of North Korean troops to the frontline in the Russia-Ukraine war offers a dark prediction for the future of escalation. Directly getting involved on the front line again sets the tone that North Korea is no longer hesitant to conduct direct aggression towards its claimed enemies. While events on the peninsula have been given less attention, their involvement in Russia’s invasion emphasises the need to recentre attention back onto the 38th parallel.
While the literary community celebrates Han Kang, her win sheds light on a forgotten and unnerving lack of focus on the Korean peninsula. Both the media and international watchers must turn to the ongoing situation and assess the increasingly likely situation of further nuclear tests by North Korea.
Works Cited
Bennett, B. (2024). North Korea's October Surprise: A Nuclear Weapons Test?. [Online]. RAND. Last Updated: 31 May 2024. Available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/05/north-koreas-october-surprise-a-nuclear-weapons-test.ht [Accessed 10 November 2024].
Carlén, L & Lewin, T. (2024). Nobel laureate Han Kang in the first interview after the literature prize: I thought it was a prank call. SVT. [Online]. 13 October 2024. Available at https://www.svt.se/kultur/nobelpristagaren-han-kang-i-forsta-intervjun-efter-litteraturpriset-trodde-det-var-en-busringn [Accessed 10 November 2024].
Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (2024). Understanding the North Korean Nuclear Issue. [Online]. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea. Available at: https://www.mofa.go.kr/eng/wpge/m_5474/contents.do [Accessed 10 November 2024].
Ng, Kelly. (2024). North Korea drops trash balloons on the South. BBC. [Online]. 29 May 2024. Available at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4nn2p32zrzo [Accessed 10 November 2024].
Shin, H. & Yim, H. (2024). North Korea blows up inter-Korean road, rail lines near border. Reuters. [Online]. 15 October 2024. Available at https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-blows-up-parts-inter-korean-roads-its-side-s-korean-military-says [Accessed 10 November 2024].
Kim, T. (2024). South Korean military says North Korea appears poised to conduct nuclear and ICBM tests. [Online]. Associated Press. Last Updated: 30 October 2024. Available at: https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-test-icbm-ukraine-russia-a39a36f4ff000037f96116fd6f56 [Accessed 10 November 2024].
