The Emerging Alliance Between North Korea and Russia: Implications for Global Stability and Regional Security

Dat Quoc Tran

Dat Quoc Tran is a Postgraduate student. He studies International Relations of the Americans and has an interest in American Foreign Policy and South East Asian politics. https://www.linkedin.com/in/dat-t-07673112a/

Introduction

In recent years, the relationship between North Korea and Russia has evolved from tentative cooperation to a robust strategic alliance with significant implications for international stability. This burgeoning partnership, solidified through high-level meetings between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, has been underscored by direct military support, potential arms transfers, and diplomatic gestures that signify a shared opposition to Western influence. The alignment between these two countries, both facing international sanctions and diplomatic isolation, has become especially relevant against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, where North Korean troops and supplies are reportedly contributing to Russia's war effort. For the United States, NATO, and regional players like Japan and South Korea, the Russia-North Korea alliance raises substantial concerns over nuclear proliferation, regional security, and the potential escalation of hostilities in Asia and Europe.

This article examines the context surrounding this alliance, its direct and potential impacts, and the responses from the international community. With tensions already heightened by North Korea’s recent provocations against South Korea, including the destruction of an inter-Korean liaison office, the implications of this partnership extend far beyond Ukraine.

Context: Historical Background and Strategic Interests

The Foundation of the Russia-North Korea Partnership

The alliance between North Korea and Russia is rooted in historical ties, with the Soviet Union playing a key role in the establishment of North Korea as a state in the aftermath of World War II. While relations between Moscow and Pyongyang cooled following the Soviet collapse in 1991, Russia’s recent geopolitical isolation has renewed interest in its former ally. The catalyst for their rekindled relationship came after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which subjected Russia to sweeping Western sanctions and cut off critical resources. To bolster its economy and military capacities, Russia turned to North Korea, among other isolated states, for material support.[1] 

Kim Jong Un’s 2023 visit to Russia, where he met Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, signalled North Korea’s endorsement of Russia’s actions in Ukraine and a commitment to closer military and economic ties. This was reciprocated by Putin’s visit to North Korea in June 2024, a significant diplomatic move that established a mutual defence agreement and solidified military and technological collaboration.[2] For North Korea, this alliance offers critical access to Russian resources, including oil and advanced weaponry, which is invaluable to a regime hamstrung by international sanctions. For Russia, North Korea provides munitions and potentially auxiliary military personnel, allowing Russia to sustain its protracted campaign in Ukraine without depleting its own resources. [2]

Recent Developments and Military Involvement

The partnership between North Korea and Russia has extended beyond diplomatic gestures and material support to include military cooperation. Western intelligence suggests that North Korean artillery shells and missiles have bolstered Russian supply lines in Ukraine, while reports indicate that North Korean troops may have been deployed to fill auxiliary roles on the battlefield. Although these reports have not been officially confirmed by either government, the possibility that North Korean soldiers are participating in European conflict is unprecedented, marking North Korea’s first foray into foreign conflicts of this scale.[3]

The deepening ties between North Korea and Russia have far-reaching implications for nuclear proliferation. Russia’s potential transfer of advanced missile technology to North Korea raises concerns over Pyongyang’s growing nuclear capabilities. The mutual defence pact also introduces the possibility of coordinated military responses, which could embolden North Korea to escalate provocations in the Korean Peninsula, further destabilising the region.

Impact: Regional Security Concerns for Japan and South Korea

South Korean and Japanese Reactions

The close ties between North Korea and Russia have raised alarms in South Korea and Japan, two countries that have long viewed North Korea’s military ambitions as existential threats. South Korea has voiced its concerns through heightened military readiness, including joint exercises with the United States aimed at deterring North Korean aggression. Japan, which has faced repeated missile launches from North Korea over its territory, has responded by increasing its defence budget and reinforcing its missile defence systems.

The growing Russia-North Korea alliance has made these responses urgent. The destruction of an inter-Korean liaison office by North Korea in 2024 has exacerbated the divide between the Koreas, erasing a significant symbol of diplomatic engagement. [4] Analysts interpret this act as a signal that North Korea, emboldened by its Russian ally, is prepared to escalate hostilities on the peninsula. South Korea now faces the daunting prospect of contending with a North Korean regime that not only has tacit Russian backing but also potential access to enhanced missile and nuclear technology.

For Japan, the alliance represents a direct threat to its security. With North Korea now in a position to potentially deploy more advanced Russian-supplied missiles, Japan could face an increased likelihood of missile tests near its waters, a common tactic used by Pyongyang to assert its dominance and test the international community’s response. Both Japan and South Korea are further aligning their security strategies with the United States, solidifying the trilateral alliance as a bulwark against North Korean and Russian expansionism. [5]

The Global Impact on the U.S. and NATO

The alliance between Russia and North Korea also complicates Western strategies in the Ukraine conflict. With North Korea supplying munitions and possibly soldiers, Russia has gained a new lifeline that could sustain its military efforts despite mounting Western sanctions. For NATO, this means a potentially longer, more entrenched conflict in Ukraine, stretching resources and impacting political stability within the alliance as member states weigh the costs of continued support.[5]

Furthermore, Russia’s partnership with North Korea represents a deliberate challenge to the U.S.-led international order. By allying with North Korea, Russia has effectively endorsed Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, positioning itself alongside countries like Iran and Syria in a coalition that openly defies Western influence. This shift not only heightens the risk of nuclear proliferation but also signals the emergence of an alternative bloc of authoritarian regimes that could reshape global alliances in the coming years [6]

Potential Consequences for Global Stability

The strategic alliance between North Korea and Russia extends beyond immediate military considerations, with significant implications for nuclear proliferation and international security. Russia’s potential transfer of advanced missile technology, particularly submarine-launched ballistic missiles, could empower North Korea with the capability to deliver nuclear strikes more effectively. This would not only elevate the threat to South Korea and Japan but also introduce new risks to U.S. interests in the Pacific.

The mutual defence clause introduced in the latest Russia-North Korea pact introduces another layer of complexity. If either country perceives an external threat as targeting one of their strategic interests, they could justify collective military action, leading to a broader regional conflict. Such a scenario, while speculative, is increasingly plausible given North Korea’s pattern of military provocations and Russia’s need to assert its influence amid a declining global standing.

In addition, the alliance may indirectly embolden other authoritarian regimes to pursue nuclear capabilities as a countermeasure to Western influence. This could undermine decades of non-proliferation efforts and set a dangerous precedent for future diplomatic engagements involving nuclear policy.

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

The alliance between North Korea and Russia represents a profound shift in the global geopolitical landscape, highlighting the adaptive strategies of isolated states seeking to challenge Western influence. For North Korea, the partnership offers vital resources, security assurances, and technological advancements that bolster its regime stability and nuclear ambitions. For Russia, North Korea’s support provides critical resources for sustaining its military campaign in Ukraine, offsetting the impact of Western sanctions and prolonging the conflict.

This alliance places the United States, NATO, and regional allies like Japan and South Korea in a precarious position, as they confront a potentially nuclear-empowered North Korea and a resurgent Russia emboldened by foreign support. The response from these nations will likely involve strengthening defence alliances, increasing military budgets, and reinforcing diplomatic efforts to counteract the influence of the Russia-North Korea bloc. However, the risks posed by nuclear proliferation and regional instability will require a coordinated, multi-pronged approach that addresses not only the immediate threat but also the broader implications of a shifting international order.

Ultimately, the North Korea-Russia partnership underscores the increasingly polarised nature of global alliances. As both countries pursue policies that defy established norms, the international community faces the challenge of responding to a new era of authoritarian cooperation. The decisions made in response to this alliance will have lasting impacts on global security, shaping the nature of international relations in the decades to come.

Works Cited

[1] International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) (2023). The surge of activity in relations between North Korea and Russia. Available at: https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2023/the-surge-of-activity-in-relations-between-north-korea-and-russia/ (Accessed: 11 November 2024).

[2]  Barnes, J E. Schmitt, E. and Schwirtz, M.  50,000 Russian and North Korean Troops Mass Ahead of Attack, U.S. Says Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/10/us/politics/russia-north-korea-troops-ukraine.html (Accessed: 11 November 2024).

[2] S, Hyonhee. ‘North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia.’ Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-ratifies-mutual-defence-treaty-with-russia-2024-11-11/ (Accessed: 11 November 2024).

[3] Panda, A. The Diplomat (2024). ‘A new Russia-North Korea strategic partnership: Geopolitical implications for Asia.’ Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2024/06/a-new-russia-north-korea-strategic-partnership-geopolitical-implications-for-asia/ (Accessed: 21 October 2024).

[4] Shin, M. The Diplomat (2024). ‘North Korea steps up Its hostile moves against South Korea.’ Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/north-korea-steps-up-its-hostile-moves-against-south-korea/  (Accessed: 25 October 2024).

[5]  Tatsum, Y.  Kennedy, P. Nagayoshi, K. ‘Japan’s Strategic Future and Implications for the US-Japan Alliance.’ Available at: https://www.stimson.org/2024/japans-strategic-future-and-implications-for-the-us-japan-alliance/

[6]   Chivvis, C. S, Keating J. ‘Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America’ Available at: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/cooperation-between-china-iran-north-korea-and-russia-current-and-potential-future-threats-to-america?lang=en (Accessed: 25 October 2024).

[7] Gencturk, A.  ‘Anadolu Agency (2024). NATO condemns Russia, North Korea for expanding war in Ukraine.’ Available at: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/nato-condemns-russia-north-korea-for-expanding-war-in-ukraine/3388903 (Accessed: 11 November 2024).