Why Tokyo Broke Ranks with the West

Ryosuke Kohatsu is a second-year Politics and International Relations student. He is the editor-in-chief of The Diplomacy Review. He participated as a commentator for the Cambridge Journal of Political Affairs's Seminar Series: Vitae Sacrae: On the Weaponisation of Life in Occupied Palestine.

Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (second from left) meets with Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki (second from right) in Ramallah, West Bank. | JAPANESE FOREIGN MINISTRY / VIA KYODO

“Today, we…express our steadfast and united support to the State of Israel, and our unequivocal condemnation of Hamas and its appalling acts of terrorism”, began the joint statement issued by leaders of the UK, US, France, Italy, and Germany on October 9th.

What was notable to me in this otherwise unnotable statement was the fact that Japan, usually so in lockstep with its fellow G7 partners, was absent from it. While the statement issued by Prime Minister Kishida in response to the attacks condemned Hamas in no uncertain terms, it was noticiably more muted. He used the more normatively neutral word “militant” instead of the strongly condemnatory “terrorist” like his other G7 colleagues, and he included a line where he urged “all the parties concerned” (including Israel) to “exercise maximum restraint”, a sentiment not found in the joint statement. 

My perception of an apprehention within the Japanese government in wholeheartedly supporting Israel was confirmed to me during a visit to the Japanese embassy in London, an event I attended as a part of the UCL Diplomacy society. When asked to elaborate about the Japanese position regarding the issue, the embassy official commented; “the bombings look a little bit indiscriminant” when refering to Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. “UN officials were killed by airstrikes as well” he said, implying a sense of doubt within the Japanese government regarding Israel’s insistance that any military action is an act of self defence, again a sentiment lacking in the public communications of most Western leaders. 

The reason for Japan’s deviation with the rest might be very straightforward - oil. Unlike the US, a country self-sufficient on oil, Japan imports around 90% of its hydrocarbons from Middle Eastern oil producers, all of them united in their condemnation of the carelessness of Israeli operations in Gaza. One can easily assume Japan has an interest in avoiding the alienation of these states. The 1973 oil shock, where Arab states embargoed oil exports in condemnation of the West’s support of Israel, spelled the end of one of Japan’s longest periods of economic growth. When oil prices are volitile enough already, this is the last thing Japan needs. 

While the US and the UK were successfully became relatively energy independent due to large investments in domestic production, Japan remains as energy dependent towards the Middle East as ever. A cursory glance at Japanese headlines now, where parallels to 1973 are constantly being made, tell the story of how the pain suffered during this time is not easily forgotten.

Japan also might be trying to walk a fine line, torn between the rapidly diverging positions on Israel-Palestine between the West and the Rest. Japanese geopolictical grand strategy is distinct in the very large emphasis placed in courting countries of the so-called Global South, especially in areas strategically important such as South East Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The goal is to positively align with these countries, who will become key players in the great power competition with China. However, Japan faces a dilemma, as many of these countries display an unmistakably pro-Palestine attitude. For example, Indonesian President Joko Widodo stated unambigously that; “Indonesia will not stay silent while civilian casualties continue to count, witnessing the ongoing injustices against the Palestinian people. Indonesia…sends a strong message to…resolve the root of the problems, namely the Israeli occupation of the Palestine”. The fear in alienating much of the Global South, through a staunch support of Israel and letting China take advantage must also factor in significantly in the mind of the Japanese policy maker.